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Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases

Biases in judgments reveal some heuristics of thinking under uncertainty.

DSEID
DSEID-002-0146845
DOI
10.1126/science.185.4157.1124
Journal
Science
Publisher
American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Published
1974-9-27
Status
temporarily_unreachable

Abstract

This article described three heuristics that are employed in making judgments under uncertainty: (i) representativeness, which is usually employed when people are asked to judge the probability that an object or event A belongs to class or process B; (ii) availability of instances or scenarios, which is often employed when people are asked to assess the frequency of a class or the plausibility of a particular development; and (iii) adjustment from an anchor, which is usually employed in numerical prediction when a relevant value is available. These heuristics are highly economical and usually effective, but they lead to systematic and predictable errors. A better understanding of these heuristics and of the biases to which they lead could improve judgments and decisions in situations of uncertainty.

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Metadata

Title
Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases
Delta ID
DSEID-002-0146845
Authors
Amos Tversky, Daniel Kahneman
Abstract source
crossref
Source URL
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.185.4157.1124
Access
closed_or_uncertain
Licence
unknown
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